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      中信保誠基金胡喆:市場將呈現更多結構性行情機會

      來源:中國基金報 作者:時間:2018-01-26

      2018年,按我們的策略框架,以宏觀經濟、貨幣環境、市場資金、企業盈利和市場估值為主要評估因素,綜合分析下來,我們總體對2018年股票市場持謹慎樂觀態度,市場將呈現出更多結構性行情機會。

      2018年,按我們的策略框架,以宏觀經濟、貨幣環境、市場資金、企業盈利和市場估值為主要評估因素,綜合分析下來,我們總體對2018年股票市場持謹慎樂觀態度,市場將呈現出更多結構性行情機會。


      從投資策略上,我們認為2018年仍將是龍頭戰勝小微公司的環境,這意味著很多行業都會出現行業集中度提升的情況。同時,我們看好以下四個方向:

      一是與消費升級和美好生活相關行業,消費升級是未來長期可持續的投資方向;

      二是在經濟總量增速平穩,行業集中度提升、資金利率上升、環保壓力大增的大背景下,我們看好周期性制造行業龍頭公司的盈利提升帶來的投資機會;

      三是以5G、半導體等為代表的科技創新類行業,這是中國經濟由大轉強的關鍵;

      四是大金融,既受益于供給側改革也受益于消費升級的傾向,同時資產質量也在持續改善。

      雖然2017A股呈現出牛市結構,但是從投資者的投資收益看,表現出了很大的差異。2017年的賺錢效應主要體現為機構投資者明顯跑贏散戶。以基金的收益為例,50%以上的基金收益超過10%21%的基金收益更是超過20%,但從個股表現看,雖然整體市場指數上漲明顯,但近八成股票出現下跌。

      為什么2017年的這一輪牛市表現和2015年的牛市會有這么大差異呢?我們認為這與市場的交易主體變化有關。2016年底以滬港通、深港通為代表的資金的互聯互通渠道打通后,境外機構持股市值和占流通市值比例得到快速提升,即2017年增量資金主要來自海外資金。海外資金在投資上體現出明顯的“低估值、高ROE、高股息率”的偏好,符合這些條件的基本就是大盤藍籌股票,這些股票在2017年實現了業績和估值的雙升,漲幅明顯。

      2018年,隨著A股被納入MSCI指數的正式實施以及資金對外開放的不斷深化,海外資金仍是資金供給中最為確定的流入,因此,這種市場結構和風格仍將延續,機構投資者的優勢有望延續。

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